Sarah from London is tossing a coin. In front of her, 30 people are standing with their hands on their heads – if they are predicting a head – or by their sides, if they think the coin has come up tails.
Sarah from London is tossing a coin. In front of her, 30 people are standing with their hands on their heads – if they are predicting a head – or by their sides, if they think the coin has come up tails.
You’ve got 70 years ahead of you. What are you going to do with them?
Professor David Spiegelhalter
It’s a test to see if anyone in the room is more talented at predictions than Paul the Psychic Octopus. It’s also a demonstration of the odds of predicting a series of events.
There isn’t an equation in sight – but there is a £20 note on the table as “Professor Risk” bets the room that at least two people in it have the same birthday.
“Chance works in amazing, miraculous ways,” he says, inviting each person to shout out their day and month of birth. There are three matching pairs in the audience. It was a safe bet. The Professor knows that in any group of 23 people there’s a 50/50 chance of a matching birthday, and there are around 40 young people, virtual school workers and carers in the room today.
Professor Spiegelhalter is Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk. He is here in Selwyn College as part of the Realise project, showing a group of young people in care about how statistics can be used to decide which risks are worth taking. Which, for him, included whether to compete in Winter Wipeout.
It’s just possible that most of the students in the room weren’t expecting an HE Taster to include footage of a Cambridge Professor tackling the Big Red Balls and the Ski Lift. But there are thought-provoking moments too. Presenting statistics on life expectancy, Professor Spiegelhalter comments “You’ve got 70 years ahead of you. What are you going to do with them?”
Femi Aiyebusi works with Islington’s Virtual School for Children Looked After. He’s here today accompanying a student who is interested in going to university. “Days like this are important because part of raising aspirations is about giving young people a taste, an experience of university life, to help them engage with the opportunities available to them,” Femi commented.
He would encourage other Virtual School workers to get involved with Realise. “I feel better informed now. I know what to say to promote Cambridge to my students.”
“Professor Spiegelhalter told us that one of the biggest risks in life is being too cautious,” said Jenny Mackay, co-ordinator of the Realise programme. “For young people in care, deciding to aim for university can feel like a risk. We hope that through initiatives like Realise we can raise awareness of all the support, encouragement and information which is available, so that staying on in education starts to feel like a risk worth taking.”
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