Lessons from the past to inform the future

Climate is changing but by how much? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts a temperature rise range for 2100 of between 1.1 and 6.4 °C, a range that reflects uncertainty in climate predictions.

The predictions use the best models available, constructed using the best understanding of the physics that drives the climate system.

The challenge we now have is to improve these predictions to better inform policy. Crucially this means addressing the uncertainty in the predictions.

Scientists from around the world are focussed on this key issue and working together to improve predictions of future change.

Many now believe the key to progress may be found in the records of past climate obtained from ice cores, tree rings, corals, ocean and lake sediments, and other sources.

This information on past climate has increased dramatically over the last decade. The hope is it can now be applied more completely to modelling of the Earth’s future climate.

The Symposium, which rallied 150 of the world’s most distinguished climate and palaeoclimate experts, explored six key themes: ice sheets, atmospheric circulation and composition, ocean circulation, carbon cycle, solar variability and rapid climate change.

In each case the scientists debated how understanding of past climate might help them learn how climate works and how this understanding can feed into modelling of future climate.

The Symposium aimed to demonstrate the lessons and strengths of this multidisciplinary approach to government, policy advisors, media, educators and environmental groups.

Bringing together the various communities was acknowledged to be an incredibly worthwhile initiative; already there are plans for palaeoclimate scientists and climate modellers to collaborate and ideas for other unanticipated collaborations have been discussed.

Professor Harry Elderfield, who spearheaded the event, said, “We agreed that there is an urgent need for scientists fluent in the skills of both interpreting data and comparing models; this will require a new science education agenda.

“We are currently discussing a number of follow-up activities suggested at the symposium, including a Science White Paper to define future collaborative research and a summer school on palaeo-modelling interactions for advanced PhD students and postdoctoral researchers.”

To watch some of the highlights from the Symposium, please visit the link on the upper right hand of this page.