Ever headed out for the day expecting bright sunshine, only to end up getting soaked in a downpour instead? If you’re reading this in the UK, chances are you have – and now your help is needed in a new project which aims to sharpen up forecasting so that people’s plans are less frequently thwarted by the Great British Weather.
Ever headed out for the day expecting bright sunshine, only to end up getting soaked in a downpour instead? If you’re reading this in the UK, chances are you have – and now your help is needed in a new project which aims to sharpen up forecasting so that people’s plans are less frequently thwarted by the Great British Weather.
By playing this game participants will help us to understand the best way of communicating probability in weather forecasts.
Ken Mylne
A new online weather game, launched today by the Met Office, investigates how we respond to different representations of probabilities, particularly for use in presenting weather forecasts.
Developed by Professor David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge and Liz Stephens, from the University of Bristol, the game will run for one month and aims to be the largest and most comprehensive study into the understanding of how weather probabilities are communicated.
The aim is to learn how using probabilities can improve the presentation of forecasts. Players help Brad, an ice-cream man, run his business by deciding on where and when he should sell his ice-cream depending on the weather over a four-week period.
The game uses a number of ways of presenting probabilistic forecasts. By playing the game, users will give the researchers valuable information about how they understand probabilities as they are presented in weather forecasts and make decisions as a result. The hope is that this will lead to more effective presentations of the complex statistical and probabilistic information used in weather forecasts in the future.
Ken Mylne, Met Office Ensemble Forecasting Manager, said: “We are constantly looking at ways to improve how we communicate our forecasts to the public. By playing this game participants will help us to understand the best way of communicating probability in weather forecasts.”
The weather game took approximately five minutes to complete. Each day players were entered into a prize draw to win a Met Office T-shirt.
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