The war with Iran: Expert analysis

A weakened Iran

Asked about the motives behind the events, Dr Pesaran shares her views: “This war is an attempt to decimate an already weakened Iran. And it's important to look at it in the context of both the 12-day war that happened last year [in 2025], and following on from the protests that we've seen across Iran." She added President Donald Trump at the time of the 12-day war “claimed to have destroyed Iranian nuclear capabilities. Now he's articulated some claims that this is a war to protect America and its allies from the Iranian nuclear programme. Either he destroyed it last year, or he didn't.” 

Regime change

Dr Pesaran argues that this is an extremely significant moment for Iran and explains how the Islamic Republic is re-organising following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “Since the killing of the Supreme Leader, Khamenei, the Council of the Islamic Republic has set up a triumvirate of leaders who will be taking that role of supreme leader, leading the country, setting strategy and taking that leadership role. And in the meantime, the assembly of experts, which is an appointed body, which exists for this very moment, has taken up responsibility.” She warns that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus will view American intervention as proof that the people protesting are being backed by foreign forces, saying: “It gives an excuse to the regime to securitise Iranian society even further, and to be even more violent in its responses to any popular uprisings.”

She explains: “The weakening of the regime, the removal, the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it does not mean that it's just easy for people to go in and take over a country. It's very hard to set up governance structures and all of the institutional frameworks. And it's far more likely that this is just leading to chaos and hoped for disintegration of the country."

Implications for Iranian people

The population of Iran is close to 93 million and lives across a huge geographical landscape. On how this might be impacting them, Dr Pesaran comments: “We really need to recognise that the people of Iran are not a single entity”, explaining that there is significant diversity in what people want and how they are responding to this war.  

She says we see mostly two camps within the media depictions we have of Iranian responses to this war, pro or against: "But this image kind of creates a really false dichotomy," adding: “In reality, I think many, many more Iranians sit in that grey area, in the middle, where they're feeling that it's actually possible to hold these two truths in their minds at the same time, that we can both be very angry and opposed to the Islamic Republic, and all of the suffering and killing that it has caused, and also be opposed to foreign intervention. Iran has had a long history of meddling by Britain and then America, and also Russia, in its history.” She believes we need to listen carefully to Iranians who occupy this more complex middle ground going forward.  

On what the future may bring for the people of Iran, Dr Pesaran believes: “Those who are celebrating the killing of Khamenei are hopeful that this is going to lead smoothly and peacefully to a transition towards a liberal democracy. I hope this is the case, but I fear that they may be very disappointed.” 

Regional implications

Dr Pesaran argues the attacks by America and Israel were unprovoked and that there was no imminent threat, stating: "Many would have interpreted this war as an illegal war." She explains the significant regional implications developing: "Many countries in the Gulf region have military bases of the United States and are allowing and enabling American attacks on to Iranian soil, so the response of the Iranian regime is to attack those countries... Iran is really hoping to put pressure on these Gulf states to then put pressure on to the United States to leverage Trump to reduce the intensity or to stop the attacks on Iran."