Britain's foot-and-mouth epidemic would have been over much sooner if the slaughter and cull policy currently in operation had been implemented from the beginning, according to researchers at the University of Cambridge.

Britain's foot-and-mouth epidemic would have been over much sooner if the slaughter and cull policy currently in operation had been implemented from the beginning, according to researchers at the University of Cambridge.

Dr Matt Keeling, Dr Bryan Grenfell and colleagues in the Department of Zoology, along with researchers in the University of Edinburgh and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), have constructed a detailed model of the epidemic.

They used the location of every farm in Britain, as well as the number and type of livestock, to estimate the regional risk of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease.

Their results have shown that the current policy of local culls has reduced the number of farms losing livestock - either to infection or culling - by more than 50 per cent, compared to just removing the infected premises.

Dr Keeling commented:
"The UK foot-and-mouth epidemic has devastated the livestock industry and has had severe economic consequences for the whole country.

"The model of the epidemic we have developed shows that the size and species makeup of farms has been a significant factor in the epidemic, with more infections in larger farms. Cattle farms are the most susceptible to infection, followed by sheep and pig farms."

The team also looked at the benefits of vaccinating against foot-and-mouth during the epidemic. Their results suggest that although vaccination from the early stages of the epidemic would have been advantageous, prompt culling is more effective at limiting the spread of the disease. Vaccination during the later stages of the epidemic would have had little effect - even at high levels.

"We are currently following up these initial results with a more extensive analysis of the use of culling and vaccination.

"The probable duration of the epidemic very much depends upon the level of cull policy, on livestock movement restrictions and environmental effects on transmission. But even if these remain at the present level, it is likely to be some months before the disease is eradicated from the UK," said Dr Keeling.

The team's research paper, entitled 'Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic - stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape', is published in the journal Science, as part of the Science Express website today, 4 October 2001.


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